Cracking the Holiday Dip: The Latest Research & How to Reduce Absences Before & After Breaks

In a recent webinar hosted by EAB and Everyday Labs, we covered research and trends in chronic absenteeism, what’s changed since the pandemic, and how districts can use behavioral science to reduce absences — especially around the fall and winter “dip” days. If you missed the session, you’ll want to read on for research and immediate actions you can take to keep attendance on track this year.

Chronic Absenteeism Has Always Been a Challenge. What’s Different Now? 

Absenteeism spiked during the pandemic and hasn’t returned to previous levels. There are now roughly twice as many students who are chronically absent compared to pre-pandemic, and many districts see a mid-year holiday dip, with absences becoming cyclical and entrenched.

Every missed school day matters. Research reveals that each absence translates into about a 1 percentage-point drop in a student’s annual attendance rate — and these lost days add up to measurable learning loss.

Absences have severe long-term consequences. Chronically absent students are far less likely to read on grade level by third grade and are at greater risk of dropping out of high school.

Scale has outpaced traditional intervention systems. There’s been a 442% increase in elementary schools facing extreme levels of chronic absenteeism since the pandemic! This rapid increase of students requiring intervention has made one-to-one interventions (home visits, individual meetings) less scalable and incredibly overwhelming. It’s why more widespread, proactive support is so critical, keeping students on track and freeing up staff capacity. 

What’s Driving Absenteeism?

EAB share highlights from their own research that has uncovered several key drivers behind the rise in chronic absenteeism:

1. Parents have become more likely to keep kids home: shifting perceptions of the value of in-person learning, underestimating the frequency of students’ absences, and receiving mixed messages about when children should stay home for illness have all contributed. 
2. Student barriers are often unaddressed: families of chronically absent students are facing an average of 9 different attendance barriers. 
3. Teachers and school staff are under-leveraged: districts have not fully mobilized classroom staff to influence daily attendance through connection and engagement.

These three drivers combined create a perfect storm of chronic absenteeism. 

But before you accidentally hit send on an “attendance nastygram” to emphasize the importance of showing up…   

Punitive, legalistic letters rarely change behavior. When communication is reactive and compliance-driven, it tends to scare or confuse families instead of motivating action.

Positive and personalized communications can make a difference. The presenters shared how a redesign of truancy notices (informed by our co-founder Dr. Todd Rogers’ research) making them shorter, more accessible, individualized (with specific missed dates) and framed as partnership requests were 40% more effective than standard truancy notices. `

Behavioral Science Communication Strategy: What Actually Works 

Applying the following strategic, positive messaging elements to attendance outreach makes a huge difference:

1. Express empathy: acknowledge challenges and barriers without blame.
2. Motivate with next steps: help families see it’s easy to take action and get help
3. “Clear is kind.” Follow the “Three C’s” of effective attendance policy- clear, concise, and communicated. 
4. Offer social proof: present the gap between their students’ current attendance and the average class attendance 

Consider these two practical campaigns that incorporate these principles:

• Early, personalized mail and text nudges: Send brief, supportive messages after a small number of absences (e.g., 2–3 days) that acknowledge the absence, offer specific options (talk with the teacher, arrange transportation, get health support), and link parents to action. These are short, accessible, and routed to the right staff member for follow-up.
• Health checklists: Given that many absences have stemmed from uncertainty around health guidance, provide simple thumbs-up / thumbs-down checklists that cut through confusion about symptoms, reduce unnecessary absences, and make next steps explicit: who to call, what to do, and when to return.

This All Sounds Great. But How Do We Know It Really Works? 

At Everyday Labs, we’re obsessed with research and evidence, which is why we continuously run studies and randomized controlled trials with our partner districts. Two recent randomized controlled trials from last school year spoke volumes to the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of this strategy: 

• Washington, D.C. (27,000+ students): Mail and text nudges during the fall semester reduced chronic absenteeism by ~1.7 percentage points (about 6.3% among targeted students) and prevented an estimated 20,000+ absences that school year. Cost: about $19 per absence prevented, proving to be much more cost-effective than mentoring ($400 per absence) and tutoring ($1,000 per absence)
• Large Texas district (47,000+ students): Personalized nudges reduced overall absences by 4.1% and chronic absenteeism by 6.7%, totaling nearly 40,000 more days of learning across the district. With Texas being an ADA state, the district saw a return of nearly $3 for every $1 spent.

Additionally, we’ve found that applying these messaging strategies in more targeted communications can also be effective. Case in point: our partners at Tempe Elementary.

The Tempe Elementary team was concerned to see high amounts of absences the days before and after their Thanksgiving break in the prior school year, and were determined to get different results the next time around. In addition to sending their regularly scheduled bi-weekly text nudges, the EveryDay Labs team sent a text message to families the Friday before Thanksgiving break reminding them of the importance of attending the week before Thanksgiving, and a text on the first day of break wishing them a wonderful holiday and a reminding them of the first day back. Paired with working together on fun attendance incentives before and after break, the team was thrilled to see progress clearly displayed in their dashboard right after the holidays! 

Attendance had improved: 

• Over 6 percentage points the day before break
• Over 4 percentage points the day after break 

How can I build my own short, actionable targeted campaign? 

1. Start with data: examine ADA by day, school, grade level, and calendar events to spot dip days (holidays, early release days, long weekends). Get nightly SIS updates if possible.
2. Prioritize: focus on the schools/days/cohorts where improvements will make the biggest difference.
3. Design simple, timely interventions: This may include two extra text nudges around a holiday or clear checklists for health-related absences.
4. Use non-punitive, solution-focused messaging: offer personalized information and supports rather than threats.
5. Measure and iterate: track the campaign’s impact and inform your future campaigns with lessons learned, both the successes and the messages that fell flat.

TL;DR

Attendance has taken a dive post-pandemic, and previous ways of addressing it have become unsustainable. But the research is clear: proactive, empathetic, and simple communication — applied at scale — reduces absences and is cost-effective. When districts send supportive nudges, use real-time attendance data to target dip days (holidays, early dismissals), and clarify expectations, they can prevent absences from becoming chronic and free up staff to focus on students who need deeper support.

Looking for a partner in proactive attendance improvement? EveryDay Labs and EAB are ready to help! 

‍